Until recently, the Arctic has received little attention from the global audience. Most people assume change will come slowly and will be managed by the international community. This article explores how the following common assumptions could prove wrong with significant consequences for the globe: (a) ice melt will not pose serious problems for decades; (b) carbon dioxide is the primary threat to global warming; (c) nation-states will determine who controls Arctic land and waters; (d) the Arctic will be governed much in the same way as the Antarctic; and (e) the Gulf Stream will continue to channel warm air to Europe. 


Randolph H. Pherson

Randolph H. Pherson is Co-Founder and Managing Director, Pherson LLC. Mr. Pherson teaches advanced analytic techniques and critical thinking skills and has authored twelve books on analytic tradecraft. He was a career CIA intelligence analyst and manager, last serving as National Intelligence Officer for Latin America.

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No. 2 Five Potential Myths About the Future of the Arctic